Stake Keno has four risk levels and ten pick counts, which makes 40 payout tables. They all come from the same draw, so the odds of any hit count never change. What changes is how the payouts are spread across the hit counts. This post lists the odds, the RTP of every setting and two full rows of the tables, all computed from Stake’s published multipliers.
How a draw works
You pick 1 to 10 numbers on a 40-square board. Stake draws 10. Your hits are the numbers in both sets. The chance of exactly k hits from n picks is a hypergeometric probability:
P(k of n) = C(n, k) × C(40 − n, 10 − k) / C(40, 10) C(40, 10) = 847,660,528 possible draws
The ten numbers are derived from your seed pair and nonce, which is what the Keno seed checker (opens in new tab) recomputes when you verify a past bet.
Hit odds by pick count
These odds hold at every risk level.
| Picks | 0 hits | All hits | All hits, one in |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 75.00% | 25.00% | 1 in 4 |
| 2 | 55.77% | 5.77% | 1 in 17 |
| 3 | 41.09% | 1.21% | 1 in 82 |
| 4 | 29.99% | 0.230% | 1 in 435 |
| 5 | 21.66% | 0.038% | 1 in 2,611 |
| 6 | 15.47% | 0.0055% | 1 in 18,278 |
| 7 | 10.92% | 0.00064% | 1 in 155,363 |
| 8 | 7.61% | 0.000059% | 1 in 1,708,993 |
| 9 | 5.23% | 0.0000037% | 1 in 27,343,888 |
| 10 | 3.54% | 1.2e-7% | 1 in 847,660,528 |
Hitting all 10 of 10 is 1 in 847,660,528. Even 7 of 10 is 1 in 1,740. The common outcomes are in the middle: with 10 picks, 2, 3 or 4 hits together cover 74.6% of draws.
RTP for every setting
Multiply each hit count’s chance by its multiplier and add them up:
RTP = Σ P(k of n) × multiplier(k)
| Picks | Classic | Low | Medium | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 99.00% | 98.75% | 98.75% | 99.00% |
| 2 | 99.04% | 98.85% | 98.65% | 98.65% |
| 3 | 99.02% | 98.87% | 98.99% | 98.99% |
| 4 | 98.96% | 98.92% | 98.78% | 98.91% |
| 5 | 98.99% | 98.90% | 98.94% | 98.89% |
| 6 | 98.97% | 99.01% | 98.83% | 99.00% |
| 7 | 98.98% | 98.94% | 98.96% | 98.96% |
| 8 | 99.02% | 99.00% | 98.92% | 98.96% |
| 9 | 98.98% | 99.07% | 98.94% | 98.96% |
| 10 | 99.04% | 98.76% | 98.97% | 99.01% |
Every figure is between 98.65% and 99.07%. The house edge is about 1% on every setting, the same as Dice and Limbo, and the house edge comparison (opens in new tab) shows how that places Keno among the Originals.
What risk changes
Risk moves payout from frequent small hits to rare large ones. The share of bets that return at least the stake shows it:
| Picks | Classic | Low | Medium | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| 2 | 44.2% | 44.2% | 44.2% | 5.8% |
| 3 | 58.9% | 58.9% | 14.9% | 1.2% |
| 4 | 25.6% | 25.6% | 25.6% | 4.2% |
| 5 | 36.7% | 36.7% | 36.7% | 8.9% |
| 6 | 47.4% | 47.4% | 15.3% | 2.6% |
| 7 | 22.8% | 57.2% | 22.8% | 5.2% |
| 8 | 31.2% | 65.9% | 31.2% | 8.9% |
| 9 | 39.9% | 73.4% | 39.9% | 13.8% |
| 10 | 48.5% | 79.6% | 48.5% | 19.7% |
With 10 picks, Low risk pays on 79.6% of bets and High risk on 19.7%. The RTP is almost identical. Low pays from 2 hits, High pays nothing below 4, and the money High holds back goes into the 8, 9 and 10-hit payouts of 500x, 800x and 1,000x.
Two full payout rows
| Hits | Chance | Classic | Low | Medium | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.66% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 41.65% | 0.25x | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 27.77% | 1.4x | 1.5x | 1.4x | 0 |
| 3 | 7.93% | 4.1x | 4.2x | 4x | 4.5x |
| 4 | 0.957% | 16.5x | 13x | 14x | 48x |
| 5 | 0.038% | 36x | 300x | 390x | 450x |
| Hits | Chance | Classic | Low | Medium | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.54% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 16.88% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 31.07% | 0 | 1.1x | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 28.82% | 1.4x | 1.2x | 1.6x | 0 |
| 4 | 14.71% | 2.25x | 1.3x | 2x | 3.5x |
| 5 | 4.24% | 4.5x | 1.8x | 4x | 8x |
| 6 | 0.679% | 8x | 3.5x | 7x | 13x |
| 7 | 0.057% | 17x | 13x | 26x | 63x |
| 8 | 0.0023% | 50x | 50x | 100x | 500x |
| 9 | 0.000035% | 80x | 250x | 500x | 800x |
| 10 | 1.2e-7% | 100x | 1000x | 1000x | 1000x |
The 5-pick row shows the trade clearly. Classic pays 0.25x for a single hit, which 41.6% of bets get, and 36x for all five. High pays nothing until 3 hits, then 4.5x, 48x and 450x. The 5-of-5 chance is 1 in 2,611 either way.
Choosing a setting
There is no setting with a lower edge to find. The choice is how often you want to see a return and how large the top payout should be. The Keno payout table (opens in new tab) shows all 40 settings with the exact chance beside every multiplier, and the Keno tracker (opens in new tab) in the extension records how your own sessions compare with those figures.
Questions
- How are Stake Keno odds calculated?
- Stake draws 10 numbers from 40. The chance of hitting exactly k of your n picks is C(n, k) × C(40 − n, 10 − k) / C(40, 10). Multiply each hit count's chance by its multiplier and add them up to get the RTP of a setting.
- What is the RTP of Stake Keno?
- Between 98.65% and 99.07% depending on the risk level and pick count. Every setting sits close to 99%, so the house edge is about 1% whatever you choose.
- What are the odds of hitting 10 out of 10 on Stake Keno?
- 1 in 847,660,528. It pays 100x on Classic and 1,000x on Low, Medium and High risk. Hitting 5 of 5 is 1 in 2,611.
- Does the risk level change the odds?
- No. The draw is the same at every risk level, so the chance of any hit count is the same. Risk only changes the payout table: how much each hit count pays and how many hits you need before anything pays at all.
- Which Keno setting has the best odds?
- Every setting returns about 99%, so none has better odds in the sense of a lower edge. Low risk with 10 picks pays something on 79.6% of bets. High risk with 3 picks pays on 1.2% of bets, 81.5x when it does. The Keno payout table (opens in new tab) lets you compare any two settings.